Political trends within the European Union (EU) reveal a resizing of forces, with the radical right groups Identity and Democracy (ID) and European Conservatives and Reformists (CRE) emerging respectively in third and fourth position in intentions voting. This dynamic is taking hold despite the decline of the Italian Brothers of Italy (CRE) party led by Giorgia Meloni, to the benefit of the left in Italy.
The latest projections consolidate the position of the ID group as the third political force within EU member states, with 12.5% of voting intentions and 93 seats. Notably, the ID group dominates in France with the National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen, in the Netherlands with the Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders, and in Austria with the Freedom Party (FPÖ). This rise in power transformed the political landscape of the Union, displacing the Italian League from its preeminent position.
Blocking majority
France, Germany and the Netherlands now emerge as the largest national parties, overtaking the Italian League with 27, 21 and 12 seats respectively, relegating the latter to just 8 MEPs. This redistribution of seats underlines the need for political groups to adapt to this new reality.
The possibility of a blocking majority on the right, bringing together ID, CRE, the European People's Party (EPP) and Viktor Orbán's Fidesz, could reach more than 367 seats. Iratxe García Pérez, president of the Socialists & Democrats (S&D) group in the European Parliament, criticizes the EPP for what she calls the "normalization" of the far right, highlighting the implications for EU citizens.
Changing political alliances after the elections are becoming a key focus, with EPP general secretary Thanasis Bakolass considering a pro-EU coalition with the Socialists, Greens and Liberals, emphasizing the need for environmental policies pragmatic.
The socialists hold on
In this context, the S&D group maintains its position by gaining an additional seat, now totaling 143 seats. The socialists remain in the lead in Sweden, Lithuania, Romania and Belgium. Rumors surrounding the possible appointment of European Commissioner Nicolas Schmit as head of the EU socialist list are raising questions, which could have repercussions on figures such as Marc Angel.
The EPP loses a seat
The EPP loses one seat, reaching 178, but retains its leadership in nine member states: Greece, Bulgaria, Latvia, Finland, Poland, Germany, Slovenia, Croatia and Spain.
The Left group saw its representation decline to 37 seats, recording notable victories in Cyprus and Ireland. The Greens/EFA continue their decline with 50 seats, a drop of 24 compared to 2019, reflecting the dynamic changes within the European political arena.
In France Jordan Bardella , young rising star of the far right
“The deadline for the European elections promises to be difficult for the presidential majority,” declared Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally (Identity and Democracy, ID), during his greetings to the press on January 15. Recent polls in France attribute more than 28% of voting intentions to the RN, relegating the Renaissance coalition (Renew Europe) from the presidential majority to around 18%.
The list led by Marion Maréchal, niece of Marine Le Pen, displays a credibility of 5 to 8% of voting intentions, a significant score since 5% is enough to send a candidate to the European Parliament. The RN and its sovereignist allies, advocating a "Europe of cooperation between nations", oppose the supporters of a more integrated Europe among the liberals, socialists, ecologists and part of the EPP.
The RN's program emphasizes the need to "restore voice to France in Europe", in the face of what they consider to be a "real federalist coup d'état currently being prepared". Jordan Bardella says he is ready to lead a “civilizational fight” in this perspective.
The appointment of Mr. Attal as Prime Minister aims to breathe new impetus into Mr. Macron's second five-year term, just a few months before a European election which should largely favor the National Rally (RN), with a lead of 10 points according to the latest polls in relation to the Renaissance coalition. The young prime minister is hailed as "telegenic, fluid and pugnacious" in the face of Jordan Bardella, the young rising star of the French political extreme right, says Mr. Rahman.
Faced with the clear rise in voting intentions for the far-right, it is not surprising that Emmanuel Macron played his joker Gabriel Attal to counter Jordan Bardella...
Although the appointment of Mr. Attal could temporarily influence With polls favoring the government, Gallard predicts this is unlikely to last until the eve of the election, which is scheduled for June 6-9, 2024. |
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