HIGH RISK PRESIDENTIAL IN BRAZIL

BETWEEN BOLSONARO AND LULA

Former President Lula, who will try to return to the helm of the country in the October 2 election, is favored by the polls.

The outgoing president is second in the polls – which he disputes – behind former President Lula. He cited rumors of electoral fraud if he is not re-elected, questioning the reliability of the fully electronic voting system. Remarks refuted by the experts, but which nevertheless stirred up his supporters.

“Trump of the tropics”

The Superior Electoral Court has banned the carrying of weapons in polling stations and within 100 m around, in the 48 hours before Sunday's vote and 24 hours after, except for the police. The Supreme Court has temporarily suspended some gun sales

Nothing to please Jair Bolsonaro, a great defender of weapons. Since his election in 2018, he has facilitated access to guns for hunters and sport shooters, with the help of a dozen decrees. His son, MP Eduardo Bolsonaro, took to Twitter to invite Brazilians in legal possession of a firearm to volunteer in his father's campaigns.

"[The defense of gun ownership] is something built by a far-right movement, which is actually based on a movement in the United States," says Ana Julia Bonzanini Bernardi, associate professor at the São Paulo School of Sociology and Politics Foundation.

Bolsonaro is often called the Trump of the tropics borrowing tactics from Donald Trump during his campaign and tenure.

Like the former US president, Jair Bolsonaro was elected as a candidate outside the political system, seducing a conservative segment of the population with his outspokenness and his defense of guns, associated with an idea of ​​​​manhood and freedom. He is also an evangelical who punctuates his speeches with religious references and is particularly tough on ethnic minorities, the media, women and the LGBTQ+ community.

If Bolsonaro is often compared to Trump, it is also for the fervor of his supporters, wary of traditional media and active on social networks. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has opened investigations into the current president for disinformation.

The role of the armed forces in the event of popular uprisings and riots also raises questions, 37 years after the end of a military dictatorship. Jair Bolsonaro, former captain, has supporters in the ranks.

A total of 12 candidates compete in the first round on October 2. If none collects more than 50% of the votes, a second round will take place on October 30.

“Voting day will be very tense, in any case, but if we have a second round, it will be quite a tense month of October in Brazil”, launches Mr. Benetti.