HOUTHI ATTACKS IN THE RED SEA

AN EXTENSION OF THE CONFLICT

ISRAELO - PALESTINIAN ?

The most spectacular attack took place on November 19, 2023, when fighters used a helicopter to kidnap the crew of a car transporter linked to an Israeli businessman. Media attention will focus on the Houthis who, buoyed by their success, will multiply their declarations: their spokesperson, Yahya Sarea, will publish numerous press releases on social networks warning the powers “linked to the Zionist entity” ( sic) of the risk now incurred by their ships cruising in the Red Sea

Although most Houthi attacks on the Red Sea have not been successful, they have forced thousands of ships to bypass this route and head towards South Africa, resulting in costs and considerable delays for maritime transport.

Israel's first ally, the United States, set up an international coalition in December to protect maritime traffic in this strategic area where 12% of world trade passes. Grouped under the banner of Operation Prosperity Guardian and under American command are the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, France, Italy, Greece, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Seychelles and Bahrain [38].

With the exception of the latter, the Arab countries, or at least the countries bordering the Red Sea such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, are among the notable absentees from this naval coalition, testifying to the reluctance of the countries of the region to take part in American military operations against an ally of Iran, moreover in the context of clashes initially triggered in retaliation for Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip.

Seizure of Iranian-made missile parts

The US military said Tuesday it had seized Iranian-made missile parts destined for Houthi rebels from a boat in the Arabian Sea, the first such seizure since the Houthis began attacks on commercial ships.

“This is the first seizure of lethal advanced conventional weapons (ACW) supplied by Iran to the Houthis since the Houthis began attacks on merchant ships in November 2023,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff said. US Army in a statement.

This operation, carried out on January 11, made it possible to seize weapons including “components of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles,” the press release said.

The missile parts were seized aboard a dhow, a traditional Arab sailboat, operated by a crew of 14 people. The boat was sunk, the US Army General Staff said.

This text also indicates that two American navy soldiers, missing off the Somali coast since Thursday evening, had taken part in the operation. They are two members of the Navy Seals, an elite commando force. “Intensive searches” are still underway to locate them, said Michael Kurilla, head of the American military command for the Middle East, Central and South Asia (Centcom).

The two sailors were on a mission with the United States 5th Fleet which operates in a wide area including the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Oman and parts of the Indian Ocean. Its headquarters is located in Manama, Bahrain.

Rebels' "largest attack" foiled last night

The US military announced that 18 drones and three missiles fired by the Houthis were shot down on Tuesday evening in a “complex” attack

This is, according to the British and American forces, “the largest attack” by the Houthis to date. It would also be the 26th carried out by Yemeni rebels targeting commercial maritime traffic in the Red Sea since mid-January.

“During the night” from Tuesday to Wednesday, the British ship HMS Diamond with American warships “successfully repelled (…) the Houthis supported by Iran”, wrote Minister Grant Shapps on the social network ex-Twitter). The US military had hours earlier said that 18 drones and three missiles fired by the Houthis had been shot down, as part of a "complex" attack.

Earlier, the US military's Middle East Command (Centcom) said the Houthis had "launched a complex Iranian-designed attack in the southern Red Sea using drones, anti-ship cruise missiles and an anti-ship ballistic missile.

The British Defense Minister announced Tuesday evening that another frigate, the HMS Richmond, was on its way to the Red Sea to counter “attacks” by the Houthis. That of Tuesday evening took place while the head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken is in Israel as part of a regional tour aimed, among other things, at preventing the war between Israel and Hamas from spreading.

Who are the Houthis?

The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah (or "followers of God"), are a military group that currently exercises de facto control over most of northern Yemen. Formed in the 1990s, the militia is named after its founder, Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, and follows the Zaidi branch of Shiite Islam, which makes up 20 to 30 percent of Yemen's population.

Today they control parts of northern Yemen. The turning point for the Houthi movement probably originated in the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. Inspired by the success of Hezbollah fighters, based in Lebanon and who Valiantly confronting Western forces in Iraq, the Houthis drew inspiration and support from the Lebanese group, as well as Iran, although their officials categorically deny such links.

But how did the Houthis manage to take power?

They were among the main protesters of Yemen's central government led by President A. Saleh. Faced with their growing power, Saleh launched a military campaign in 2003, supported by Saudi Arabia. Despite the apparent success of Saleh's forces in eliminating Houthi leader Hussein al-Houthi in 2004, they have repeatedly inflicted setbacks on Saleh and the Saudi army, despite billions of dollars spent by the latter.

The Yemeni civil war, which began in 2014, has seen incessant battles between the Houthis and the internationally-backed government. Since the 2011 revolution, the Houthis have struggled to oust Saleh from power, even forming an alliance with him in 2015.

However, when this alliance fell apart, the Houthis emerged as the dominant power, culminating in Saleh's assassination in December 2017.

The Houthis have also played a major role in Yemen's ongoing civil war, resulting in approximately 377,000 deaths, including many civilians. Although the southern government is internationally recognized, the Houthis have conquered much of the north of the country since seizing Sanaa in 2014. Their hold extends to the strategic port of Hudeidah, a crucial source of revenue generating up to 1 billion dollars for the Houthi government.

Access to the Red Sea?

Currently, the Houthis, numbering around 20,000 fighters, are led primarily by al-Houthi's brother, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi. He clearly announced that he would not hesitate to attack the United States and its allies. Since the Gaza war began in October, the Houthis have attempted to exploit the conflict to demonstrate their power and raise their international status.

In response to multiple attacks in the Red Sea, the United States and the United Kingdom launched their largest offensive against the Houthis since 2016. At that time, the United States struck three Houthi missile sites in response to attacks against American warships and commercial ships. This action temporarily stopped the Houthi attacks. Today, convinced of having triumphed against the Saudis and the West in Yemen, the rebels seem more determined than ever to openly defy the United States.

“The effectiveness of the naval coalition under American command and its ability to remain in a purely defensive posture will therefore prove decisive both in its success and in defusing a potential regional security escalation,” according to a specialist.

NEITHER WAR NOR PEACE

SOMALILAND OR THE RESURGENCE

"OF A FROZEN CONFLICT"

And since Monday 01/01/2024, the Somaliland conflict has resurfaced:

Ethiopia regains access to the Red Sea after an agreement with Somaliland to the detriment of Somalia which considers its sovereignty violated.

The self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland has just authorized Addis Ababa to use the port of Barbera for 50 years. Much to the dismay of Mogadishu. Somaliland, a semi-desert territory of 175,000 square kilometers whose independence (in 1991) has never been recognized by the international community, has just granted Ethiopia access to the Gulf of Aden.

The two signatories against Somalia

On the one hand, Somaliland aims to make the port of Berbera a regional maritime platform on the African shore of the Red Sea. This port is located on one of the busiest trade routes in the world, leading in particular to the Suez Canal. Additionally, Ethiopia will formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland.

On the other hand, Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa with 120 million inhabitants, benefited from access to an Eritrean port until the two countries went to war in 1998-2000 and she found herself without proper access to the outcome of this long conflict.

Since then, the Ethiopians have channeled most of their trade through Djibouti. But still in search of another maritime access, Ethiopia acquired 19% of the port of Berbera in 2018, as part of an agreement that has since fallen into disuse.

The agreement "will pave the way for realizing Ethiopia's aspiration to secure its access to the sea and diversify its access to seaports", according to the office of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. In addition, Addis Ababa will lease a military base on the Red Sea.

The agreement was greatly displeased in Somalia. The Mogadishu regime recalled its ambassador and denounced "a flagrant violation of its sovereignty and unity". The Somali authorities condemned this text as "illegal", denouncing an "Ethiopian aggression".

The Shebab Islamists, a group affiliated with al-Qaeda at war since 2007 against the federal government, also condemned the agreement.

Ethiopia has assured that the maritime agreement it signed with the separatist region of Somaliland does not transgress "any law", in response to the anger aroused in Somalia by this text deemed "illegal" against which residents of the capital demonstrated on Wednesday.

This “memorandum of understanding” signed on Monday has revived fears of a renewed tension between the two neighbors with historically tumultuous relations.

A region of 4.5 million people that prints its own currency, issues its passports and elects its government, Somaliland has been seeking international recognition since it proclaimed its independence in 1991, as Somalia plunged into chaos. from which she still has not emerged.

Concern for regional stability

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) - an East African organization of which Ethiopia and Somalia are members - expressed its "deep concern", saying it was "aware of the potential implications for regional stability".

What characterizes these “frozen conflicts” – a term that appeared in the early 1990s to define separatist rebellions and frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet area – is not only the duration of the conflict, but also the end or at least the relative weakness of direct armed clashes between the parties. A conflict which does not cease, however, since no peace treaty or political agreement has been found. At any time, clashes could resume.

Populations between war and peace

“Frozen conflicts”, because they can restart at any moment, are sources of numerous difficulties for the populations concerned who thus live neither in peace nor in war. Generally speaking, there are no more, or few, victims, but the economic situation in these territories is often catastrophic.

The Cypriot conflict has lasted for fifty years, as has that of Western Sahara. And the list of regions and countries where wars continue grows over time. Kashmir, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea, Donbass, Somaliland. Faced with these conflicts, the international community seems to be struggling.

For all parties to the conflict, the cost of resuming hostilities may be greater than maintaining the status quo, understood then as a necessary evil.

Ultimately, a “frozen conflict” never truly is. “The best analogy would be a frozen river, seemingly immobile. But under the layer of ice, the current remains as strong as ever,” reported Brian Fall, a former British diplomat in Le Monde.

And faced with the media and political silence which surrounds these areas of tension, it is very often the resurgence of clashes which reminds us that the situation was, in fact, in no way resolved.