WHAT CONCESSIONS FOR PENSION REFORM ?

Thursday, December 5, 2019 at least 800,000 people had demonstrated throughout France so that the unions, perked up, decided to strike again on Tuesday, December 10, 2019 to obtain possible concessions from the executive.

The executive, for its part, leaves the door open to new negotiations. "There is still room for negotiation," said government spokeswoman Sibeth Ndiaye.

Monday, Agnès Buzyn, the Minister of Solidarity and Health, will receive all the social partners, with the High Commissioner for Pensions Jean-Paul Delevoye. Then it will be the turn of the highly anticipated announcements of Edouard Philippe, Wednesday noon, before the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (Cese).

Its reform project supposed to be presented in its "entirety", will be scrutinized to the point.

But what concessions could the executive make?

1 ° A renouncement of savings measures

For Emmanuel Macron the future "universal system" supposed to replace the 42 existing regimes will have to be "financially balanced" from the start. However, according to the report published Thursday, November 21 by the Pensions Guidance Council (COR), the current pension system should reach a deficit between 7.9 and 17.2 billion euros in 2025. It is therefore up to the government balance the pension insurance accounts by 2025 by advocating measures to offset this announced deficit. Among the avenues mentioned: extending the duration of contributions or setting up a pivotal retirement age at 63 or 64, with the application of a discount before. So-called “parametric” reforms, which the CFDT leader, Laurent Berger, the only government supporter, categorically refuses.

"If the reform is to be successful, it may be advisable to refer the equilibrium measures to the social partners over a longer period. It is not an emergency, ”explains LREM MP Sacha Houlié at a colleague's house.

2 ° Entry into application of the postponed reform

The Delevoye report proposes an entry into force of the point system from 2025, for the generations born from 1963. But the government has been planning for several weeks to postpone this date of application. On November 27, Édouard Philippe had indicated that people at “10 or 15 years” of retirement could be concerned, therefore born in 1968 or 1973. This would exclude the fiftieth anniversary for whom the reform would not therefore apply

This compromise, between the Delevoye project and the now abandoned idea of ​​the "grandfather clause" (a reform that would only apply to new entrants to the labor market), would seem "the right cursor", according to Edouard Philippe's formula

3 ° The revaluation of teachers' salaries

Faced with the strong mobilization of teachers (51.15% in primary and 42.32% in secondary), the Prime Minister and the Minister of National Education tried to calm the spirits by promising wage increases. Simulators have indeed circulated in recent weeks, posting sharp pension cuts of up to 900 euros per month if the pension calculation took into account the entire career and no longer the last six months before retirement , like today. “The universal pension system is not about lowering teachers' pensions. On the contrary, it is the gradual revaluation of their salary, so that their purchasing power does not drop, "tried to reassure the Prime Minister on Friday. The measure, which should be included in the 2021 budget, would cost between 400 and 500 million euros per year.

For some observers, however, these few concessions would not be enough to ease tensions.

“Macron is at an impasse. If he yields, his electorate from the right will be dissatisfied and he will lose enormously in this part of the opinion that he seeks to conquer. And if it does not yield, the presidential election of 2022 will be a referendum for or against this reform ", according to analysis Jean-Christophe Cambadélis for a colleague.