VENEZUELA

TOWARDS A NEW WORLD WAR ?

In early March 2019, a giant blackout plunged the country into chaos, even as Venezuela is the largest oil reserve on the planet (297 billion barrels) , one of the reasons for too much desire.

But Venezuela also has significant gold reserves. In December 2018, Caracas gave the green light to Russia to start extracting gold from the country.

Too busy in the last decade, by the affairs of the Middle East, Syria, Iran, Libya, the United States had lowered the guard on the American continent, thus implicitly renouncing the application of the Doctrine James Monroe dictated in 1823.

The Monroe Doctrine has characterized US foreign geopolitics throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.

Described as a doctrine, but in fact a set of principles defined by US President James Monroe on the occasion of his message to the Congress of December 1923, the Monroe Doctrine prohibits any intervention in American affairs over the entire world. American continent, from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego.

The doctrine of Monroe was completed in 1904 by "the corollary of Roosevelt" which has since justified US interventionism on the American continent.

It is this doctrine of Monroe that justified all US responses to the "endangered, considered as its backyard".

The case of the Bay of Pigs / Cuba (1961), brilliantly managed by President John Fitzgerald Kennedy, was one of those responses.

As everyone knows, history stutters!

Because what is going on in Venezuela is starting to look like the events of the Cold War in CUBA's Bay of Pigs.

On March 24, 2019, about a hundred soldiers and 35 tons of equipment were landed in Venezuela by the Russians. A Cossack leader even claimed that he had 400 paramilitaries for this operation. Putin had warned however before getting there!

Admittedly, the Venezuelan opposition immediately downplayed the case, claiming that it was only an attempt at intimidation.

It does not seem so, considering the turn that has taken this incident since.

Initially denied by the Kremlin spokesman, military escalation has not stopped since.

Because Russia would have a lot to lose in the event of a change of regime in Caracas.

The second largest foreign investor, Russia has long wanted to strengthen its military ties with Venezuela, with the intention of eventually having a military base on the Orchila Island, located 2400 km from the coast of Florida in the Caribbean Sea: an unprecedented strategic threat for the United States ....

In December 2018, the American newspaper " The Drive " published satellite images of the Venezuelan island that reveal that changes have already taken place on the island. For example, the appearance of an airstrip for operations with Russian bombers TU-160, capable of carrying nuclear-headed cruise missiles.

Moreover, joint exercises between Russia and Venezuela have already taken place, in accordance with international law, following the instructions for the use of airspace: Russian aircraft were accompanied by Norwegian fighters F-16 ?? Guarantee ??

Not sure ! when it is known that Norway, which has just hosted the important NATO exercise Trident Junctuer, is increasingly concerned about the unpredictability of its neighbor (200 km of common border), which strengthens after day its military capabilities in the Arctic.

The military base of the island of Orcha should eventually allow Russian TU-160 bombers not to return systematically to Russia, supplies can therefore be done in flight.

The American response has gone up a notch.

The US Air Force is already carrying out "its integration of the theater of flight training" from the station of the RAF of London, this with the aim "to use this base as the advanced place of operation for B-52 bombers ".

At the same time, the US Air Force launched its bombers in the Pacific from Andersen base in Guam Island, which led to the preparation of two Sukoï SU-27 combat aircraft for interception of B-52 bombers.

Revisiting the principles of Monroe's theory very appropriately, John Bolton, Security Advisor to the White House has just recalled that any act of provocation in Venezuela would now be considered "as a threat" to peace and international security.

For his part, Donald Trump said bluntly that Russia should leave Venezuela, quickly ... on pain of paying the price ...

As we can see, the drums of war are beating more and more strongly, especially since the United States, like Russia, have begun to withdraw their participation in the INF Treaty, signed in 1987 by Gorbachev and Reagan, following the Euromissile crisis, with the aim of combating the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

China has just called for calm; but we know in what part of the struggle Chinese President Xi Jinping is engaged with Donald Trump and we also know that she will not let the United States attack Iran.

And Europe in all this?

In the current state of the European debate, the Europe that protects is only a mild dream, France, which is the only European State to dispose of nuclear weapons (with the exception of Great Britain, which will certainly switch to Brexit) being mired in an endless debate, unrealistic provoked by the successive serious mistakes of Emmanuel Macron since his accession to the Elysée.

In November 2017, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called, at a meeting with NATO ministers, European countries to plan their civilian infrastructure for the needs of the army. By slamming heels, the EU has solemnly pledged to rehabilitate its transport networks, including railways, to support rapid transport of armored vehicles and heavy equipment, delegating key roles to national governments and the private sector. highway ?).

Given the state of maintenance of the French road network and the public finances of France ... the appointment does not seem assured !